Tuesday, May 01, 2012

Predictions are hard, especially about the future

Even for renowned science fiction authors.

Here is John Scalzi speaking at Google on 27 April 2007, just five short years ago. Start listening at 18:28 and let it run for about five minutes.

(alt. video link)

No diss, and I'm sure he's had this pointed out before. I also think he's an insightful guy about a whole lot of things. I just thought this was kind of funny.


TC said...

Predictions about the past are a lot easier for sure, but where's the challenge in that? I wonder what he's predicting for the next 10 years? What's your prediction for Windows 8? The new windows versions seem to have lost their "must-have" magic I just wonder how many bugs will have to be straightened out.

Brendan Keefe said...

Ah, you don't recognize the old Yogi Berraism? (Or someone else-ism? Sources differ.)

I have no strong sense of how Windows 8 will shake out, aside from personal distaste. I have heard a fair amount of speculation that businesses will not rush to upgrade, and will either stick with, or upgrade only to, Windows 7. And some may well stay with XP, for that matter.

I do expect Win8 will be bug-filled at first release, but that's hardly more of a prediction than "I expect the sun will come up tomorrow."

Brendan Keefe said...

And this just in (to me, anyway):

People ask me to predict the future, when all I want to do is prevent it. Better yet, build it. Predicting the future is much too easy, anyway. You look at the people around you, the street you stand on, the visible air you breathe, and predict more of the same. To hell with more. I want better.

    -- Ray Bradbury