Saturday, September 27, 2008

Speculation

Yesterday, I noted the growing number of conservative commentators who have seen the light regarding Sarah Palin, or who have had it burned so brightly into their eyes that they're now compelled to say so publicly. Just came across a post on Politico that mentions a few more. I've seen plenty of buzz elsewhere in the blogosphere, and not just on elitist liberal sites, that dares to say it out loud: should she leave the ticket?

Kathleen Parker, mentioned in that post yesterday, is one of the conservatives who have already floated the trial balloon -- use the demands of motherhood as a cover story for dropping out:

She can bow out for personal reasons, perhaps because she wants to spend more time with her newborn. No one would criticize a mother who puts her family first.

Makes you wonder.

That the McCain campaign doesn't even trust her to do a little post-debate spin is telling. I mean, come on. This is a two-minute drill, 90% of which can be memorized in advance. We're not talking hard-hitting interviews here.

So, would she (be asked to) leave? The strongest argument for "yes" in my mind is this: John McCain has demonstrated this entire campaign that he has nothing to offer except one drama-queen episode after another. If he and his people aren't smearing Obama, they're dreaming up Big Media Moments. They make ads that they never plan to pay to air, as catnip for the 24-hour cable news networks. There's the pick of Palin herself, and by the way, announced right after the Democratic Convention. There's this past week's stunt of "suspending" the campaign. So, Palin "asking" to be relieved could be the next grab for the spotlight from the campaign that thinks the most important thing is "winning the week." And it's perfectly in keeping with McCain's crap-shooter mentality.

No doubt, the media would go crazy. There's the obvious risk that much of the craziness would be laughter, of course. But I will not ever discount MSM wistful love for the old, "real" John McCain.

Now, who would he pick to replace her? Mitt Romney -- to double down on the "we're going to fix the economy" trope? Another woman, say, Kay Bailey Hutchinson? Another red-meat Christianist, to pacify the base? The Villagers do love them some Mike Huckabee. Or back to the one he really wanted, Joe Lieberman? Think about it -- Holy Joe as the new Hail Mary.

The thing is, Sarah Palin is the darling of the base. There is no shortage of apologists for her recent disasters in the Couric and Gibson interviews -- they'll tell you "it's the liberal media playing gotcha." Or, they simply don't care that Palin doesn't have a clue -- that makes her "one of us." So it does seems that if she gets tossed, the base will go mental, no matter who is picked to replace her.

On the other hand, it's becoming more and more clear that the Rove strategy of mobilizing the base, demonizing the opponent, and playing for 50% + 1 isn't going to cut it this year. Too many independents and undecideds and moderates are buying the message of E-nough! So, I wonder, would it cross McCain's mind to think, the hell with the base -- most of them will vote against Obama no matter what -- let me put all my chips on one last roll for the swing voters?

I put the odds against, at the moment, even for McCain. But I don't dismiss the possibility. If his numbers keep sliding, he might think, what have I got to lose?

9 comments:

jiminy jilliker said...

As I said to my debate-watching partners tonight, if it happens, it will be framed as Sarah Palin having begged to be let out of the slot so she could 1) spend time with her family 2) take care of Alaskans hit by the financial crisis and 3) make room for a "true financial genius" like Mitt Romney. Not necessarily in that order.

If it does happen and someone other than Romney takes the slot, I'll gnaw my own leg off.

But it won't happen. I suppose with McCain, anything is possible ("put the whole bankroll on eleven!"), but it would be the equivalent of the second engine exploding after the first has caught fire. The campaign is bad, foolish, rash, but not completely stupid. There's no way they jettison Palin.

Plus, I'm REALLY looking forward to the VP debate. (Memo to Biden: keep calm, do not engage, stay the hell out of her way. She's carrying around all the rope she needs to hang herself and McCain in her back pocket.)

bjkeefe said...

Suppose she has an epic fail at next week's debate. Still almost a month till Election Day. Think you'd change your leg to your hat in that case?

Anonymous said...

This is my reasoning. Palin has been a total failure as a candidate. Those that still support her, are doing so because they would support almost anybody as long as the core Republican values are represented. I don't think they would engage in deep analysis about McCain's credibility. They'll go along with whatever. As long as the new candidate isn't black and is Christian and conservative. The rest of McCain supporters, who are now disillusioned with her will welcome a switch, as long as it's a reasonable person.

So, what would the GOP lose by getting rid of Palin? Credibility? Oh, pleeeease...

I think the only chance that Palin will be retained is that they think they can do a better job training her to look intelligent. Or that this is indeed a suicidal campaign and they have no interest in winning this election... But, of course, this one isn't that likely. Not impossible though.

bjkeefe said...

So, what would the GOP lose by getting rid of Palin? Credibility? Oh, pleeeease...

By our lights, I agree. But don't you think they would hurt themselves with GOP loyalists on this front?

And related, what about the media ridicule? The MSM is still McCain's base (though not Palin's, to be sure).

(And yes, I realize I'm arguing the other side of the case now, compared to the original post. I'm like that.)

Anonymous said...

And yes, I realize I'm arguing the other side of the case now, compared to the original post. I'm like that.

Well, that's the way to analyze stuff...

Going back to your point, you can look at this from every angle, but the bottom line, for me is this. I have no clue about what the GOP geniuses are thinking about. If you consider the gross mistake they made by getting Palin, not to mention that whatever logic they used, escapes our reasoning, how the heck can we predict what they will do? Are they likely to try and correct course? Will they give Palin another shot and try to prepare her better? Perhaps, but they must realize that, if elected, they can't be watching her every public appearance. And her problem isn't about ignorance only. She just doesn't have enough brains. She can't put sentences together in a way that makes sense. That's what I had noticed from the beginning and motivated many of my negative comments about her, in spite of some of our BhTV friends' alarmist considerations.
We'll have to wait and see...

bjkeefe said...

but they must realize that, if elected, they can't be watching her every public appearance.

I think there's one thing that we can be sure about, as far as trying to discern the mindsets of the GOP operatives goes: they care only about Palin as a candidate. They don't give a hoot about her as the VP. They'll stuff her in the official residence and send her only to funerals, as with VPs in the old days. If she picks up some smarts or at least some pseudo-smarts, that'll just be gravy. The sole consideration they have is winning the election. They wouldn't have picked her if they were considering fitness for the actual job.

Dark thought: They win, McCain gets incapacitated or dies, Palin becomes president and appoints as the new VP ... Dick Cheney.

Anonymous said...

Dark thought: They win, McCain gets incapacitated or dies, Palin becomes president and appoints as the new VP ... Dick Cheney.

You mean the Prince of Darkness himself?

Nah, he likes to operate from the darkest corner... He hates the spotlight.

jiminy jilliker said...

That's not just a dark thought-it's downright diabolical.

I only offered to gnaw the leg off if the replacement to Palin wasn't Romney. I've seen to many stupid Republican moves to put Eagleton 2.0 past them.

But I do think it's highly unlikely. Like the war in Iraq, tax cuts, and "we don't torture," they seem to be digging in their heels, grabbing on for all they're worth, and white-knuckling it into the wall, reality be damned. (I realize that metaphor was a mess, but hopefully the point is there...)

bjkeefe said...

O: Nah, he likes to operate from the darkest corner... He hates the spotlight.

My point exactly. Let's not forget how he got his current job -- he was head of the search committee to pick a running mate for GWB in 1999/2000, and ended up recommending himself.

JJ: You make a good point. Certainly, the stay-the-course, never-admit-a-mistake, facts-are-for-ivory-tower-types mentality is a dominant one in the GOP leadership. So is the valuing of loyalty over competence.

However, if there's one element to their mindset that seems even more powerful, it's this: win at all costs.

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