Speculation

Yesterday, I noted the growing number of conservative commentators who have seen the light regarding Sarah Palin, or who have had it burned so brightly into their eyes that they're now compelled to say so publicly. Just came across a post on Politico that mentions a few more. I've seen plenty of buzz elsewhere in the blogosphere, and not just on elitist liberal sites, that dares to say it out loud: should she leave the ticket?

Kathleen Parker, mentioned in that post yesterday, is one of the conservatives who have already floated the trial balloon -- use the demands of motherhood as a cover story for dropping out:

She can bow out for personal reasons, perhaps because she wants to spend more time with her newborn. No one would criticize a mother who puts her family first.

Makes you wonder.

That the McCain campaign doesn't even trust her to do a little post-debate spin is telling. I mean, come on. This is a two-minute drill, 90% of which can be memorized in advance. We're not talking hard-hitting interviews here.

So, would she (be asked to) leave? The strongest argument for "yes" in my mind is this: John McCain has demonstrated this entire campaign that he has nothing to offer except one drama-queen episode after another. If he and his people aren't smearing Obama, they're dreaming up Big Media Moments. They make ads that they never plan to pay to air, as catnip for the 24-hour cable news networks. There's the pick of Palin herself, and by the way, announced right after the Democratic Convention. There's this past week's stunt of "suspending" the campaign. So, Palin "asking" to be relieved could be the next grab for the spotlight from the campaign that thinks the most important thing is "winning the week." And it's perfectly in keeping with McCain's crap-shooter mentality.

No doubt, the media would go crazy. There's the obvious risk that much of the craziness would be laughter, of course. But I will not ever discount MSM wistful love for the old, "real" John McCain.

Now, who would he pick to replace her? Mitt Romney -- to double down on the "we're going to fix the economy" trope? Another woman, say, Kay Bailey Hutchinson? Another red-meat Christianist, to pacify the base? The Villagers do love them some Mike Huckabee. Or back to the one he really wanted, Joe Lieberman? Think about it -- Holy Joe as the new Hail Mary.

The thing is, Sarah Palin is the darling of the base. There is no shortage of apologists for her recent disasters in the Couric and Gibson interviews -- they'll tell you "it's the liberal media playing gotcha." Or, they simply don't care that Palin doesn't have a clue -- that makes her "one of us." So it does seems that if she gets tossed, the base will go mental, no matter who is picked to replace her.

On the other hand, it's becoming more and more clear that the Rove strategy of mobilizing the base, demonizing the opponent, and playing for 50% + 1 isn't going to cut it this year. Too many independents and undecideds and moderates are buying the message of E-nough! So, I wonder, would it cross McCain's mind to think, the hell with the base -- most of them will vote against Obama no matter what -- let me put all my chips on one last roll for the swing voters?

I put the odds against, at the moment, even for McCain. But I don't dismiss the possibility. If his numbers keep sliding, he might think, what have I got to lose?