Obama reaches 50% in the Gallup poll for the first time:
He might dip down again, temporarily, if McCain gets a post-convention bounce, but I don't care. This is a day worth marking.
Thanks for the email, Twin!
[Added] ... who also points to the latest Rasmussen poll [emph. added]:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 48% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 51%, McCain 45%. This is the highest level of support enjoyed by Obama at any point in Election 2008 …
2 comments:
Yeah, I saw both polls this morning. Barack needs to get up to solid 10 point lead in these polls. Google "Bradley Effect".
Don't need the Google on this one. It's been an ongoing worry for me since January.
At times, I feel like it's not as much of a problem. Judging by the primaries, it seems we have fewer people who will display the Bradley Effect -- there's a small group who doesn't mind saying that Obama's skin color makes them not want to vote for him, and there are also a number of convenient codewords ("Muslim," "his preacher hates America," "elitist") that can be offered when people are queried by pollsters. Basically, given these excuses, it seems like there isn't a large group of people who will say that they'll vote for Obama but then won't -- the ones who won't have enough cover so that they can say so without feeling embarrassed.
It's hard to be sure if this behavior among Democrats will be the same when the rest of the country votes, but that's what I'm hoping -- no B.E.-type surprises.
But yeah, a ten-point lead would be nice. And I'd like to have a clear lead for another reason, too -- I still don't trust Diebold, et al, not to mention the other, old-school Election Day dirty tricks that the GOP is so fond of. And ultimately, I'd like a clear mandate to help build the momentum for getting right to work on the agenda come 20 January 2009.
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